Tonight began with copper soaring on the quake in Chile and the pound selling off on financial woes, while PMI in China came in worse than expected. The market is waiting for the Eurozone unemployment numbers at 5 in the morning, which I anticipate to be worse than expected which will be welcomed by massive selling of the euro. People are speculating on a Greece bailout which does leave some chance on the table, the the Greeks calling the German’s Nazis you think would rule them out, but private German banks are said to be buying Greek bonds. I said last week that 1115.50 is my level on the S&P futures and I see 1100 as a big psychological level and so the more times we trade under it the weaker the market is. I will hold my long dollar, short currencies from last week and daytrade this week until the market finds a direction.
Archive for February, 2010
This was an interesting week, making new lows in the euro and pound before rebounding Thursday. Gold broke the 1100 level only to rally higher while oil also began to break lower to find support. Higher volume in the S&P futures is on the downside and the level I want to be short against is still 1115.50. Oil could make it up to 81.50 before heading lower. I am looking for some sideways action to continue into next week and around midweek to pick up the downtrend.
I am writing this a half an hour from German GDP numbers. Tuesday’s action was very bearish with commodities and markets all going lower. Anyone who was short today probably had a great day. Last week, which was options expiration, usually is bullish and the volume is what gave away that it was only a correction. Now I am looking for a lower yearly low on the S&P. If markets do continue lower tomorrow watch oil and gold to break down. Today gold fell but couldn’t penetrate 1100 so that is my support level and current resistance at 1108; oil’s support I see at 78.80 and nice resistance at 79.31. Today I was long the US dollar against the pound, euro, and cad which I still hold.
This week the US Fed raised the discount rate by 25 basis points up to 75 basis points, which is a sign of tightening. Tightening I think should drive the market lower. 1115.50 is the level of resistance I am looking at on the ES. I will be looking for a move lower on Monday, but right now the markets are in an area of uncertainty. Oil has moved up over 10 points since the 5th of this month as well as gold while at the same time the dollar has remained strong. The US tightening would mean a revalue higher for the Chinese yuan which is bullish the greenback, so the next few months should be very interesting.
The Euro sure enough continued its weakness today actually taking out all of Tuesdays gains, very bearish. The Eurozone’s deadline of March 16th has speculation that the people of Greece cheat on their taxes. More problems and speculation will come out before the deadline. I expect a big sell off since the market doesn’t like uncertainty. I am also looking for a sell off in the S&P, Dow, and oil and would be surprised to see the S&P over 1104.
Today, the U.S. markets all hit resistance with extremely light volume. Usually options expiration is bullish and so far this week has been no different; but with the low volume, I cannot imaging breaking through resistance. The Eurozone gave Greece until March 16th to lower their debt and France and Germany are ready to help out with financial assistance if necessary to the other nations. I expect volume to step back in this week and dive the markets, and the Euro should remain under pressure during the next few weeks.